Polymarket traders are betting that former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison would not serve time in prison.
Hours before a judge was set to decide Ellison’s fate, users on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket wagered over $153,670 on a market titled “No Prison Time” under the “Caroline Ellison prison time” category. Over 45% of users expect Ellison will avoid jail time following her plea agreement with U.S. authorities in the FTX trial against convicted crypto figure Sam Bankman-Fried.
The second-largest group of bettors, 24%, forecasted that the judge may sentence Ellison to prison for up to two years. Meanwhile, 39% predicted an 11-month sentence for Bankman-Fried’s former girlfriend and the ex-head of Alameda.
Lawyers for the former FTX executive have asked the judge to approve a supervised release and impose no prison time. Earlier this month, her attorneys argued that Ellison’s cooperation with federal prosecutors played a key role in securing SBF’s conviction.
The sentiment was challenged by another past FTX top shot, Ryan Salame, albeit outside court. Salame’s social media posts accused Ellison and other former staffers of downplaying their roles in the firm’s ultimate implosion.
Ellison’s sentencing was scheduled for Sept. 24, marking the first FTX executive aside from Bankman-Fried to receive a ruling. Other former members of SBF’s inner circle, such as Gary Wang and Nishad Singh, also await sentencing.
Meanwhile, Bankman-Fried’s lawyers claimed judicial bias in his latest appeal, contesting Judge Lewis Kaplan’s 25-year sentence. SBF has filed court documents requesting a new trial, asserting that he never intended to harm anyone.
Judge Kaplan found SBF guilty of defrauding FTX users and investors of over $8 billion, in what is widely considered one of the largest fraud cases in U.S. history. According to SBF’s new attorney, the trial was unfair, and his client was deemed guilty from the outset.
