PARIS– Luxury analysts had been plumping for Gucci to name a high-profile creative director to reverse its declining business, but they seem lukewarm on the choice of Demna, who made Balenciaga a byword for underground, streetwise cool and hype collaborations.
“The choice of Demna came as a surprise to us considering his bold and sometimes controversial aesthetic. We think that at this stage, the announcement brings as much risks as opportunities,” Carole Madjo, analyst at Barclays, wrote in a research note Friday.
She questioned the Italian megabrand’s about-face after two years focusing on a “timeless” offering. “Gucci is now completely shifting gears to focus on being a fashion authority.”
A Georgian designer who logged 10 years at Balenciaga, Demna succeeds Sabato De Sarno, who exited Gucci in early February after a two-year collaboration that failed to spark a renaissance. Demna is to start at Gucci sometime after his Balenciaga couture show on July 9.
Madjo warned Demna’s aesthetic, which has skewed dystopian, gritty and underground, “may not resonate with Gucci’s consumers,” and that his “edgy and sometimes provocative” approach could spell trouble, as it did for Balenciaga in 2022 when it faced outrage over an advertising campaign seen to be exploiting children.
“This episode had a significant impact on the performance of the brand for more than a year due to some consumer boycotts, especially in the U.S.,” Barclays said. “We also note that since the designer will join in July, his products are unlikely to be available in stores before 2026.”
At Bernstein, analyst Luca Solca rated Demna’s appointment a 5 out of 10.
“He is iconoclast and ironic, which is good to attract attention towards a small brand like Balenciaga, which we estimate at around 2 billion euros,” Solca wrote in a research note. “However, we are not sure the strategy would work as well for a bigger brand: it defies the point of selling exclusivity by the million.”
What’s more, the analyst pointed out that “street-style — his bread and butter — also seems to be out of fashion. Between 2017 and 2022 Balenciaga stayed at the top of Lyst’s hottest brand index, but has since fallen from the top 10.
“We are not sure that Demna measures up to the task, nor that he is the right fit for Gucci at the moment, but we understand their risk minimization strategy: going for the well known,” Solca added.
Gucci has been losing steam since the 2022 exit of creative director Alessandro Michele, who ignited a renaissance at the brand that lifted it to nearly 10 billion euros in revenues — until the market grew fatigued with his exuberant, retro-tinged designs.
Gucci reported a 24 percent drop in organic revenues in the three months to Dec. 31, worse than the 23 percent decline forecast by analysts. In 2024, the brand accounted for 63 percent of parent Kering’s operating profit.
