It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff field.
With this season’s playoff expanding to 12 teams, we’ll be laying out the projected playoff field each week as the season goes on. Yeah, the official playoff rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, but that won’t stop us from making our own guesses.
Without CFP rankings as our guide, we’ll mostly rely on the AP Top 25 as our barometer to project the field. The CFP rankings and AP poll typically have many more similarities than differences at the end of the season. Here’s what the provisional playoff field looks like after Week 2.
First-round byes
After dominating Clemson in Week 1, Georgia took a breather in Week 2 and had a walkover against Tennessee Tech. The Bulldogs visit Kentucky in Week 3 after the reeling Wildcats were run over by South Carolina at home in Week 2. It could get ugly in Lexington on Saturday night.
The Buckeyes got off to a sluggish start against Akron in Week 1, but it’s been all systems go for the past seven quarters. Ohio State beat Western Michigan 56-0 in Week 2 and five-star freshman WR Jeremiah Smith has been the team’s best receiver. The Buckeyes end non-conference play on Saturday with a home game vs. Marshall.
Miami is one of the few teams projected at the top of the ACC that doesn’t already have a loss this season. The Hurricanes beat Florida in Week 1 and cruised against Florida A&M in Week 2. Meanwhile, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State each have at least one loss and the Seminoles are sitting at 0-2 in conference play.
The Utes were very impressive in the first half of an easy win against Baylor in Week 2. The second half was a formality as the Utah defense took over in QB Cam Rising’s absence. But Rising’s absence could be very, very concerning. The seventh-year QB injured his right hand late in the first half when he got pushed into the coolers in Baylor’s sideline drink station. If Rising is out for an extended period of time, Utah could be in trouble.
First-round games
The Huskies are the talk of college football after taking down Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday. The upset wasn’t a fluke. Northern Illinois was the better team. Can NIU run the table the rest of the way? It’s a tough ask. But the big win over the Fighting Irish means that NIU will have a very strong playoff case with a 13-0 season and a MAC title.
Texas is at No. 2 in the AP Top 25 but drops to No. 5 in the playoff field because the top four seeds go to conference champions. The reward for being the top at-large team is a home game in the first round and then a quarterfinal game against the No. 4 seed, so it’s not a terrible consolation prize. The Longhorns host Georgia on Oct. 19 in what could be an SEC title game preview.
The Ducks are down to No. 9 in the AP Top 25 after starting the season at No. 3. The six-spot drop comes after Oregon struggled against Idaho in Week 1 and needed a late field goal against Boise State in Week 2. Boise State is really, really good. But this Oregon team should be too. If Oregon is going to make the playoff, its remade offensive line needs to get better.
Alabama also looked far from flawless in Week 2. Turnovers (3) and penalties (13) haunted the Crimson Tide against South Florida before Alabama scored 28 in the fourth quarter to pull away for the win. This week’s trip to Wisconsin will be a good road test for Kalen DeBoer’s team.
This game would be a rematch of last year’s Peach Bowl won by the Rebels. Penn State looked great in Week 1 against West Virginia and wasn’t so great against Bowling Green in Week 2. The Falcons picked apart the Penn State defense early, before PSU forced two late interceptions to seal the win.
The Ole Miss offense has looked phenomenal so far, but the opponents have been Furman and Middle Tennessee State. QB Jaxson Dart is completing 87% of his passes and has thrown six TDs without an interception.
Yes, this would be an all-SEC first-round matchup. It’s possible this could happen too, especially if the post-Week 2 AP rankings are a guide for the rankings at the end of the season. SEC teams occupy six of the top seven spots in the poll this week and an SEC team would be hosting each of the four first-round games.
This game would also be plausible because Tennessee and Missouri don’t meet each other in the regular season now that the SEC has ditched its divisions. Both of these teams are known for their offenses, but their defenses have been very, very good this season. Tennessee didn’t let NC State do anything in a 51-10 Week 2 win and Missouri is the first team since Wisconsin in 2019 to open the season with back-to-back shutouts.
