CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten on Thursday floated the idea of either Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or her GOP rival Donald Trump scoring “a relative blowout in the Electoral College” in the 2024 election, despite the current neck-and-neck nature of polling between the two.
There is “a ‘majority yes’ chance that the winner of this election gets at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten told “News Central” anchor John Berman on Thursday.
“Oh my God, you’re making my hair hurt,” Berman replied.
Enten noted there is a less than two-point polling difference between Harris and Trump in the seven key battleground states, but the average polling error since 1972 in those states has been 3.4 points.
So, the analyst explained, if all of those swing states tip for Harris, it will likely see the vice president win with 319 electoral votes. Conversely, if voters in those states tilt for Trump, then the former president will win with 312 votes.
“If all the states move in the one direction, one of these candidates could score a relative blowout in the Electoral College, win 300-plus electoral votes,” Enten reasserted.
And “history tells us that it is more likely than not that all of the swing states polling errors would move in one direction” and “that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout,” he added.
Watch Enten’s analysis here:
