Wild-card weekend is upon us, and even though there were a lot of bad teams this season, the good ones are now the only ones left playing.
This week’s Four Verts column looks at four storylines that caught our eye heading into the weekend.
Ravens, once again, are real deal Super Bowl contenders
Baltimore is right back where it usually is — near the top of the AFC.
The Ravens were shaky to start things off this season before finishing 12-5 and winning the AFC North in the final week of the season. Lamar Jackson had an MVP-caliber campaign and Derrick Henry had a dominant season in his first year with the team. This team had too much overall talent to have a down year from start to finish and they positioned themselves for another shot at a Super Bowl run, thanks in no small part to a defensive resurgence.
The Ravens were forced to make a switch at defensive coordinator this season with the departure of Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, swapping in former Ravens player and linebacker coach Zach Orr into the role. Much like MacDonald’s start with the Ravens, Orr got off to a rocky start in the first few weeks of season. The Ravens’ defense was a machine in giving up big plays, with even teams like the Browns and Raiders able to sustain drives against them earlier in the season.
Over time, those issues began to fix themselves through Orr’s problem-solving and the natural talent that the Ravens had accumulated over the past few years. Kyle Hamilton made a move to deep safety, Ar’Darius Washington had a breakout year, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins was borderline dominant in the second half of the season and the Ravens got far more pressure on the quarterback. Since Week 11, the Ravens have had arguably the best defense in football and they have developed into one of the most complete teams in the league.
Of course, their postseason hopes live and die on the arm and legs of Lamar Jackson, who hasn’t engineered a big-time run through the postseason yet and will be without one of his top weapons in Zay Flowers vs. the Steelers on Saturday night. Of course, Jackson has the skills to overcome that. Any quarterback who can throw for 4,000 yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions while chipping in another 900 yards on the ground is capable of taking over the whole world — let alone winning a Super Bowl. Henry may be the equalizer here that eventually lets Jackson hoist the Lombardi, but the fact that Jackson hasn’t had a Super Bowl run doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of it. (Same goes for Josh Allen and Buffalo, whom the Ravens could play later on.)
Baltimore has become a well-oiled machine that’s capable of going the distance for a Super Bowl, thanks to its defense rounding into championship form. For the sake of future discourse, let’s hope the Ravens can get to the second round of the playoffs.
Can the Packers take down the Eagles?
One of the perks of a season that featured a glut of teams at the bottom of the standings is the handful of actual good teams that made the playoffs at the end of the season.
That is most definitely true in a playoff game that features a rematch from the season opener in Brazil, with the Packers hitting the road to take on the Eagles. In the new-ish seven-team playoff format, it’s been unusual for a team of any quality to actually be in the seventh seed, but the Packers find themselves here due to playing in the unbelievably loaded NFC North this season — and they have a chance to replicate what they did last year in terms of winning on the road as a No. 7 seed.
Green Bay walks into this game with different expectations than they had a year ago. The Packers were just a bunch of upstart kids last season, sneaking their way into the playoffs on a hot streak while not actually playing a whole bunch of great football throughout the entirety of the season. This season was different, where a freaking 11-6 record means third place in the NFC North and the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. Still, the Packers were one of the best teams in the league this season.
Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs were the perfect tandem for head coach Matt LaFleur to play the style of football that he wanted. Jacobs came over from the Raiders and made an immediate impact on the Packers’ ground game, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. LaFleur’s offense has always been built around running the ball, so getting Jacobs in free agency fundamentally changed the Packers and what they were able to accomplish.
With those two, and a growing group of receivers around them, the Packers ranked eighth in expected points added per play on offense (0.08), 12th in success rate (43.3%), sixth in points per drive (2.50) and third in explosive play rate (13.2%). The ceiling on this offense is through the roof and they still have room to improve heading into the playoffs, as their recent loss against the Vikings showed.
Those guys will need to play well as the Eagles have arguably the best defense in the league and rank in the top three or five of the majority of defensive statistics. The Packers’ defense faces a tall task corralling Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown, so the offense will really have to step its game up and go toe-to-toe with the Eagles to get to the next round. The Packers certainly have the weapons to do so.
Vikings-Rams might be the coolest game of the weekend
The most important thing revolving around this game will be the recovery of the greater Los Angeles area as five wildfires tear through the city and force thousands of people to flee their homes for safety. The natural disaster may make the NFL move the location of the Rams-Vikings game, but nothing has been decided as of Thursday. When and wherever that game is played, there will be a nice opportunity for people to distract themselves a bit and tune into what may be the coolest matchup of the weekend.
Once again, the Rams look like the wild-card team that nobody wants to play, with a game against the Vikings, and former Rams assistant Kevin O’Connell, looming large. This is one of the best matchups of the weekend, particularly as it’s concerned with the Rams’ offensive attack with the Vikings’ fast-paced, blitz-happy defense.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have had an up-and-down season on offense, but everyone knows when they have Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field at the same time, they can play against anyone. The Vikings, comfortably, have a top-five defense no matter which way you slice it. They’re third in expected points added per play (-0.08), fifth in success rate (39.4%) and fourth in third down conversion rate (35.6%). Stafford and McVay have the aptitude and experience to come up with a game plan that can survive the Vikings’ aggressive defense. This matchup is going to be all about big plays — and it’s likely the only way the Rams can win this game.
The Rams’ defense is at a huge disadvantage as L.A. has been rebuilding that side of the ball, ranking in the bottom third of most defensive stats. It seems unlikely the Rams will be able to keep Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in check, so they’ll need to score in a hurry to keep themselves in the game.
Minnesota’s offense is a machine the Rams probably don’t have answers for, but if they can score in relation to their talent, they should be able to at least hang around.
Houston opening up as home dogs is appropriate
The Houston Texans have made the playoffs once again after finishing atop the dismal AFC South and will host a home game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday. The Texans didn’t have the cleanest season with head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud, but they’re here and ready to fight for their playoff lives — in the rare spot as home underdogs for the first round. And quite frankly, they deserve to be underdogs to the Chargers.
It’s hard to have a season where you win the division while also feeling like a severe underachiever. The first year of Stroud’s career coincided with the Texans having one of the best offenses in football. Stroud was a quick superstar in Houston and led it to a playoff berth just one year after being one of the worst teams in the league. Offensively, the Texans fell off a cliff this season as their offensive line struggled, injuries piled up at wide receiver, the running game was bad and Stroud was unable to carry the brunt of all the failures around him.
According to TruMedia, the Texans were one of the worst offenses in the NFL this season. They ranked 24th in points per drive (1.82), 25th in expected points added per play (-0.07), 31st in success rate (36.7%) and dead last in rushing success rate (31.5%). Even watching them, it was clear that this was not the same well-oiled machine from a year ago. They’re going to need some retooling in the offseason and, unfortunately for them, find themselves running into one of the best defenses in the league to open up their playoff run. While the Texans’ offense was bad, to say this was a bad team overall isn’t necessarily accurate.
The second year of Ryans’ reign over the Texans’ defense was a raging success, with Houston boasting one of the best defenses in the league — and it’s the biggest reason the Texans made the playoffs outside of the teams within their division. They’re in the top five of just about all advanced and standard statistics, and ranked first in success rate on defense (38.7%). They should fare well against the Chargers’ inconsistent offense, but they might not be able to carry the full load needed to get to the divisional round.
According to BetMGM, the Texans are 2.5-point underdogs to the Chargers — hardly a big spread, indicating they have a real shot to win this game. However, the fact they are home underdogs is reflected in their shaky performance this season, including a 31-2 beatdown at the hands of the Ravens on Christmas. They’ll have a chance to be productive on offense as long as Stroud is under center, but the current iteration of the Texans is slated to struggle when wild-card weekend opens on Saturday.
